Homes-uP — Single-Family Homes under Pressure?

Analyses of changes in population structure and of the various age cohorts of the population, as well as the number and structure of households, provide results on the development of residential market relevant demographic potentials through 2030 and 2060 (Banse, Effenberger 2012, Statistisches Bundesamt 2009). Statements on the effective demographic developments for the future size and structure of traditional user groups for the SFH stock are being developed. Moreover, secondary data analyses on housing supply by age and life phase of the population will highlight the interrelations of demographic change and future housing needs. Here, analyses of SOEP (Beetz et al. 2009) and 2011 census data are to be carried out.

With the differentiation of lifestyles and -concepts, new user groups are emerging to fuel demand in the housing market. On the supply side, new characteristics such as the energy efficiency of buildings gain significance (Spellerberg 2004, Hallenberg 2010). In view of these changes, the explanatory power of traditional demographic models for the explanation of housing demand is receding. Based on a review of the literature, the influence of changed residential models on the attractiveness of residence and the emergence of new forms of living and use in SFH is to be investigated in a qualitative empirical survey. At the micro-level, the task is to investigate how changed lifestyles, new forms of households and new location preferences affect the activity of living in SFH. Heirs and actual and potential purchasers and renters of existing SFH in regions of differing spatial structure are to be surveyed. Traditional and new user groups, such as “young” lifestyle groups, or households with immigrant backgrounds, and their current or prospective appreciation of SFH are to be taken into account. In connection with resource-related issues in work package 2, the survey also seeks to ascertain the extent to which change in user groups may provide a window of opportunity for the energy-related rehabilitation of buildings.

In order to relate the expected effects of demographic, structural and cultural change in Germany to a wider scope of contexts and challenges, the prior analysis is to be extended towards other economies. Such analysis is likely to unveil important commonalities and differences in the price-demography nexus, which can be exploited for policy recommendations (Saita et al. 2013). This issue is to be approached both by the German core team from a cross-over perspective, and by the contributions of international partners in order to enrich the perspective on the problem with information from other countries.

The last module of this work package aims at a structuration of the distribution of the stock of SFH in Germany. On the basis of statistical evaluations, a regional differentiation is to be carried out with the goal of classifying the housing stock according to age, type of building (detached single-family, duplexes, single-family row-houses), and vacancy rate. Moreover, for a comprehensive assessment of the problems of the SFH stocks, more thoroughgoing analyses of the secondary literature are to be incorporated. Particular problem situations result from the quality of the stock (age, equipment and condition) and its location, as well as from the image of the residential area. The database of “Hausumringe” (building footprints from the administrative Register of Properties) is used to carry out small-scale analyses of building forms for selected regions (urban SFH sub-territories, detached, row, street-side) which exceed the capacities of official statistics.